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January 19, 2022, 2:31 am

Scientist admits natural calamities getting more unpredictable

(12:48:17 PM 14/11/2013)
( - The number of typhoons landing in Vietnam tends to be increasing, while it is more difficult to forecast natural calamities, according to Bao Thanh, Deputy Head of the Institute of Hydrometeorology and Environment.



At least 12 typhoons and tropical depressions appear on the East Sea every year, 45 percent of which originate from the East Sea, while the other 55 percent from Pacific Ocean.


About 7 typhoons have direct impacts on Vietnam ever year, and five land or have direct impacts on the mainland. The central and northern coastal areas are the biggest sufferers from the typhoons and depressions. One typhoon or depression goes into the areas every two years.


In recent years, the number of tropical cyclones on the East Sea is on the rise, while storms and tropical depressions tend to move toward the southern part of the Vietnamese territory. Scientists have noted that the number of very strong typhoons is on the increase, while the storm season ends later than in previous years.


According to Thanh, the scientists in the world still keep arguing about the conclusion that the climate change is the reason behind the changes of the extreme weather phenomena, and following studies to prove the relation of the two factors.


Natural calamities tend to be more unpredictable and more extreme, which upsets people’s lives. Thirteen storms and four tropical depressions have originated from the East Sea so far this year, nine of which have had direct influences to Vietnam.


The weather in 2013 was unusual and unpredictable with typhoons appearing sooner than in previous years, when only 9-10 storms originated from the East Sea and 5-6 of which had impacts on Vietnam.


The natural calamities have caused the death toll of 211 so far this year, injured 700 and caused the material damages worth VND22 trillion, or $1 billion. The figures do not include the damages caused by the latest typhoon Haiyan, the 14th typhoon this year.


The 10th and 11th are believed to be the strongest storms which caused the biggest damages, especially to the central region.


A report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development showed that the two typhoons alone caused the material damage worth VND18.62 trillion. The 10th typhoon alone caused the damage worth VND15 trillion to the provinces of Quang Binh, Ha Tinh, Quang Tri and Nghe An. It caused the death toll of 17, while 236,000 houses were inundated, damaged or collapsed.


Meanwhile, 26 people were dead or missed during the 11th typhoon, 150,000 houses were damaged.


Thanh has noted that the weather tends to me more extreme with storms to appear sooner, stronger every year. In general, the storm intensity, measured by the wind speed, is believed to increase by 2-11 percent.


There would be fewer typhoons with weak or moderate intensity, while there would be more strong typhoons due to the warming of the Earth.


The 11 percent wind speed increase would mean that the damages to be caused by storms would be 60 percent higher. Stronger storms would bring heavier rains, while heavier rains would cause heavier damages.

Thanh Mai

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